Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 32.160187 36.298718 41.168358 47.435669 55.468698 65.696725 80.211813
2025-04-13 27.030772 32.543743 39.838647 50.711247 67.604175 95.369596 152.553406
2025-04-20 22.350540 28.081513 36.305602 50.010068 75.155353 129.041721 318.227984
2025-04-27 19.430474 25.290767 34.306644 50.969699 87.349677 197.169936 1578.627099
2025-05-04 17.346337 23.246916 32.879523 52.452239 103.613766 350.788996 NaN
2025-05-11 15.499991 21.201710 30.914812 52.130202 116.834951 676.947390 NaN
2025-05-18 14.167177 19.741232 29.618640 52.765326 136.277822 2435.421811 NaN
2025-05-25 13.170498 18.671417 28.790293 54.224381 165.164680 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 12.282882 17.651957 27.829636 54.966941 196.993486 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 11.576234 16.851252 27.142129 56.244269 243.874065 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 10.882546 15.985160 26.145707 56.156681 287.079614 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 10.366844 15.385334 25.617424 57.450534 370.493302 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 9.853718 14.780289 25.076577 58.970434 521.209019 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 9.491733 14.432176 25.094064 62.991798 1023.455714 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.934007 13.647724 23.934350 61.524635 1364.657549 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.531506 13.133748 23.365248 62.566614 3022.961449 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.196387 12.721805 22.985296 64.438881 31014.487951 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 7.818183 12.187498 22.202853 63.841375 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 7.517399 11.786096 21.710530 64.634706 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 7.274397 11.482793 21.433847 66.618240 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 7.027679 11.150541 21.026059 67.619320 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-31 6.817759 10.879003 20.747543 69.395276 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-07 6.585463 10.541988 20.234652 69.249582 NaN NaN NaN